\section{Tables for German Longnitudal Election Study}\label{app:tableG}

% latex table generated in R 3.3.0 by xtable 1.8-2 package
% Wed Jul 13 12:29:27 2016
\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{rrrrrr}
  \hline
 & Obs. & mean & sd & min & max \\ 
  \hline
Rating CDU & 1137 & 5.52 & 3.18 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating SPD & 1133 & 5.56 & 2.94 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating FDP & 1128 & 5.66 & 2.89 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating Greens & 1121 & 5.67 & 2.93 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating Left & 1130 & 4.18 & 3.09 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating CDU-Greens & 1088 & 4.82 & 2.73 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating SPD-FDP-Greens & 1071 & 4.74 & 2.80 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating SPD-Greens-Left & 1083 & 4.21 & 3.08 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating SPD-FDP & 1071 & 4.73 & 2.68 & 1 & 11 \\ 
   \hline
\end{tabular}
\caption{Rating Descriptive Statistics German Longitudinal Election Study} 
\label{tab:gles.rat}
\end{table}








% latex table generated in R 3.3.0 by xtable 1.8-2 package
% Wed Jul 13 12:29:28 2016
\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{rrrr}
  \hline
 & 1 & 2 & 3 \\ 
  \hline
CDU & 12.71 & 0.26 & 7.45 \\ 
  Greens & 0.51 & 5.39 & 5.65 \\ 
  other & 8.09 & 5.39 & 54.56 \\ 
   \hline
\end{tabular}
\caption{Transition table for CDU Greens  vignette. Rows refer to standard decision, columns to vignette decsion. Values are in percentage points.} 
\end{table}
% latex table generated in R 3.3.0 by xtable 1.8-2 package
% Wed Jul 13 12:29:28 2016
\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{rrrrr}
  \hline
 & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 \\ 
  \hline
SPD & 13.21 & 2.77 & 1.85 & 6.34 \\ 
  Greens & 1.85 & 7.40 & 0.66 & 1.45 \\ 
  FDP & 0.26 & 0.26 & 3.83 & 4.76 \\ 
  other & 5.42 & 4.36 & 3.70 & 41.88 \\ 
   \hline
\end{tabular}
\caption{Transition table for SPD Greens FDP vignette. Rows refer to standard decision, columns to vignette decsion. Values are in percentage points.} 
\end{table}
% latex table generated in R 3.3.0 by xtable 1.8-2 package
% Wed Jul 13 12:29:28 2016
\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{rrrrr}
  \hline
 & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 \\ 
  \hline
SPD & 9.66 & 1.55 & 2.84 & 9.66 \\ 
  Greens & 0.64 & 6.57 & 0.39 & 4.25 \\ 
  Left & 0.13 & 0.52 & 5.80 & 1.42 \\ 
  other & 4.64 & 2.96 & 4.12 & 44.85 \\ 
   \hline
\end{tabular}
\caption{Transition table for SPD Greens Left vignette. Rows refer to standard decision, columns to vignette decsion. Values are in percentage points.} 
\end{table}
% latex table generated in R 3.3.0 by xtable 1.8-2 package
% Wed Jul 13 12:29:28 2016
\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{rrrr}
  \hline
 & 1 & 2 & 3 \\ 
  \hline
SPD & 15.12 & 2.03 & 6.73 \\ 
  FDP & 0.51 & 2.92 & 5.72 \\ 
  other & 7.50 & 5.08 & 54.38 \\ 
   \hline
\end{tabular}
\caption{Transition table for SPD FDP  vignette. Rows refer to standard decision, columns to vignette decsion. Values are in percentage points.} 
\end{table}


\begin{table}[h]
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c}

\toprule
      &    \multicolumn{4}{c}{Vignettes} \\
      &   CDU-Greens& SPD-Greens & SPD-Greens-FDP &  SPD-FDP \\
\midrule

Stable decision           & $57$ & $58$ & $54$ & $56$ \\
...  without intention    & $16$   & $15$   & $16$   & $14$   \\
...  vote for party       & $41$   & $43$   & $38$   & $42$   \\
\\
Changing decision         & $44$ & $42$ & $47$ & $43$ \\
...  other party          & $19$   & $19$   & $20$   & $19$   \\
...  mobilization         & $18$   & $18$   & $18$   & $19$   \\
...  demobilization       & $7$   & $5$   & $9$   & $5$   \\

\bottomrule

\end{tabular}
\caption{German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES): Changes in vote intention from standard to vignette decision. Values report column percentage points.}
\label{tab:changes.gles}
\end{table}



\begin{table}[h!]
 \centering
\scalebox{0.8}{
\begin{tabular}{lcccc}
\toprule
                 & CDU-Greens          &   SPD-FDP-Greens        & SPD-Greens-Left           & SPD-FDP           \\
\midrule
                                                                                                         \\
Mixing 1 ($\gamma_1$)         & 0.88      & 0.77      & 0.60      & 0.75      \\
                 & [0.70, 1.00]   & [0.60, 0.94]   & [0.47, 0.72]   & [0.52, 0.97]   \\
Mixing 2  ($\gamma_2$)            & 0.50      & 0.60      & 0.51      & 0.37      \\
                 & [0.36, 0.64]   & [0.50, 0.71]   & [0.43, 0.58]   & [0.26, 0.49]   \\
                                                                                                         \\
First Difference ($\gamma_1 - \gamma_2) $  & 0.39      & 0.17      & 0.09      & 0.38      \\
                 & [0.16, 0.58]  & [-0.03, 0.36]  & [-0.06, 0.23]  & [0.12, 0.62]  \\
                 \\

Vote first decision ($\alpha$)   & 0.70     & 0.73     & 0.80     & 1.05     \\
                 & [0.26, 1.15]  & [0.34, 1.12]  & [0.40, 1.19]  & [0.61, 1.49] \\       

Rating 1  ($\lambda_1$)       & 0.30     & 0.33     & 0.41     & 0.23     \\
                 & [0.21, 0.40] & [0.23, 0.42] & [0.32, 0.49] & [0.15, 0.32] \\
Rating 2  ($\lambda_2$)        & 0.50     & 0.59     & 0.84     & 0.56     \\
                 & [0.39, 0.63] & [0.48, 0.71] & [0.71, 1.00] & [0.44, 0.68] \\
PID 1     ($\delta_{11}$)        & 2.39     & 1.99     & 1.99     & 2.25     \\
                 & [1.97, 2.80] & [1.69, 2.33] & [1.67, 2.31] & [1.87, 2.63] \\
PID 2     ($\delta_{12}$)        & 1.99     & 2.44     & 1.70     & 1.92     \\
                 & [1.51, 2.44] & [2.05, 2.87] & [1.28, 2.13] & [1.48, 2.35] \\       
                 
Distance Left-Right 1  ($\delta_{21}$)           & 0.03     & 0.02     & 0.01     & 0.03     \\
                 & [0.01, 0.05] & [0.01, 0.04] & [0.00, 0.02] & [0.01, 0.06] \\
Distance Left-Right 2   ($\delta_{22}$)          & 0.03     & 0.03     & 0.01     & 0.02     \\
                 & [0.01, 0.06] & [0.01, 0.05] & [-0.01, 0.02] & [-0.00, 0.04] \\       
                 
\midrule
N & 779 & 757 & 776 & 787                                                 \\    
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
}
 \caption{Posteriori means and 95 \% Credible Intervals for Models in GLES}
 \label{tab:coef.gles}
\end{table}



%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%



\begin{table}[h!]
 \centering

\begin{tabular}{lcccc}
\toprule
            & \multicolumn{2}{|c|}{CDU-Greens} & \multicolumn{2}{|c|}{SPD-FDP}    \\
\midrule
\\ 

            & CDU                             & Greens                             & SPD                           & FDP                         \\
            
            \\ 
 Constant 1 ($\beta_{1j}$)  & -4.81   & -4.34    & -3.24   & -2.91      \\
             & [-6.08, -3.41]   & [-5.97, -3.07]    & [-4.35, -2.10]   & [-4.34, -1.08]     \\
Constant 2  ($\beta_{2j}$)  & -4.54   & -4.90    & -6.19  & -6.79     \\
             & [-6.04, -3.29]   & [-6.63, -3.47]    & [-7.64, -4.97]   & [-8.44, -5.03]     \\

\\
            
            
Gender 1    & -0.25                & -0.05                & 0.01              & -0.48        \\
            & [-0.75, 0.20]              & [-0.60, 0.55]              & [-0.42, 0.43]            & [-1.21, 0.07]   \\
Gender 2    & -0.21                & -0.10                & -0.02              & 0.47       \\
            & [-0.74, 0.31]              & [-0.64, 0.44]              & [-0.53, 0.52]            & [-0.21, 1.09]    \\
Education 1 & 0.22                & -0.17                & -0.05              & -0.33     \\
            & [-0.10, 0.55]              & [-0.51, 0.18]              & [-0.34, 0.24]            & [-0.68, 0.05]   \\
Education 2 & -0.17                & -0.27                & 0.08              & 0.24       \\
            & [-0.51, 0.16]              & [-0.66, 0.10]              & [-0.20, 0.38]            & [-0.12, 0.62]   \\
Religion 1  & 0.02                & -0.53               & -0.17              & -0.06      \\
            & [-0.69, 0.69]              & [-1.43, 0.31]             & [-0.77, 0.38]            & [-1.00, 0.72] \\
Religion 2  & 0.03               & -0.48               & 0.62             & -0.31     \\
            & [-0.63, 0.71]             & [-1.46, 0.38]             & [0.01, 1.21]           & [-1.37, 0.59]  \\
Union 1     & 0.01               & 0.01               & -0.02             & -0.01     \\
            & [-0.01, 0.02]             & [-0.01, 0.02]             & [-0.04, -0.00]           & [-0.02, 0.01]  \\
Union 2     & -0.00               & -0.00               & 0.01             & 0.00      \\
            & [-0.02, 0.01]             & [-0.03, 0.01]             & [-0.01, 0.02]           & [-0.02, 0.02]  \\
Income 1    & 0.22               & 0.17               & 0.17             & 0.13     \\
            & [0.04, 0.38]             & [-0.03, 0.36]             & [0.01, 0.34]           & [-0.08, 0.35] \\
Income 2    & 0.12               & 0.09               & 0.17             & -0.06     \\
            & [-0.04, 0.29]             & [-0.12, 0.29]             & [-0.00, 0.35]           & [-0.29, 0.16]  \\
Age 1       & 0.14               & 0.01               & -0.40             & -0.02     \\
            & [-0.40, 0.68]             & [-0.01, 0.02]             & [-0.91, 0.09]           & [-0.04, -0.00]  \\
Age 2       & -0.23               & -0.19               & 0.18             & -0.04    \\
            & [-0.74, 0.31]             & [-0.96, 0.52]             & [-0.38, 0.76]           & [-0.76, 0.64]  \\
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              \\    
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
 \caption{Posteriori means and 95 \% Credible Intervals  of Controls for Models with two-party coalitions in the German Longitudinal Election Study}
 \label{tab:coef.gles.cont2}
\end{table}


%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%





\begin{sidewaystable}[h!]
 \centering
\begin{tabular}{lcccccc}
\toprule
            & \multicolumn{3}{|c|}{SPD-FDP-Greens} & \multicolumn{3}{|c|}{SPD-Greens-Left}  \\
\midrule
\\ 

            & SPD                             & Greens                             & FDP                           & SPD               & Greens                 & Left                        \\
            
            \\ 
              Constant 1 ($\beta_{1j}$)  & -3.30   & -3.77    & -2.88   & -3.69   & -4.22   & -4.10       \\
             & ([-4.40, -2.29])   & [-5.11, -2.47]    & [-4.41, -1.48]   & [-4.76, -2.77]   & [-5.38, -3.03]   & [-5.61, -2.65]       \\
              Constant 2  ($\beta_{2j}$)  & -6.37   & -6.28    & -6.45   & -7.46   & -7.86   & -6.72       \\
             & [-8.06, -4.90]   & [-8.54, -4.80]    & [-7.99, -4.91]   & [-8.86, -6.05]   & [-9.81, -6.12]   & [-8.88, -5.03]       \\

 \\
            
            
 Gender 1    & 0.00                & -0.07                & -0.53              & 0.05    & 0.06    & 0.07       \\
             & [-0.45, 0.42]              & [-0.63, 0.53]              & [-1.18, 0.10]            & [-0.36, 0.48]  & [-0.47, 0.56]  & [-0.60, 0.67]   \\
 Gender 2    & -0.11                & 0.66                & 0.42              & -0.20    & 0.56    & -0.06      \\
             & [-0.64, 0.51]              & [0.08, 1.32]              & [-0.22, 1.04]            & [-0.86, 0.28]  & [-0.13, 1.22]  & [-0.78, 0.69]   \\
 Education 1 & -0.18                & -0.26                & -0.36             & -0.20    & -0.28    & -0.57       \\
             & [-0.50, 0.10]              & [-0.63, 0.11]              & [-0.72, 0.02]           & [-0.47, 0.07]  & [-0.63, 0.06]  & [-1.02, -0.12]    \\
 Education 2 & 0.47                & -0.07                & 0.18            & 0.06    & -0.06    & 0.11        \\
             & [0.12, 0.87]              & [-0.50, 0.37]              & [-0.22, 0.58]          & [-0.32, 0.41]  & [-0.50, 0.38]  & [-0.26, 0.58]   \\
 Religion 1  & -0.13                & -0.38               & -0.04              & -0.10   & -0.36    & -0.02      \\
             & [-0.72, 0.50]              & [-1.24, 0.47]             & [-0.95, 0.80]            & [-0.71, 0.50] & [-1.19, 0.48]  & [-0.97, 0.88]  \\
 Religion 2  & 0.24               & -0.81               & -0.22             & 0.67   & -0.76   & 0.03      \\
             & [-0.47, 0.94]             & [-1.81, 0.18]             & [-1.36, 0.77]           & [-0.06, 1.39] & [-1.88, 0.26] & [-0.93, 0.99] \\
 Union 1     & -0.02               & 0.00               & -0.01             & -0.02   & 0.00   & -0.00      \\
             & [-0.04, -0.00]             & [-0.01, 0.02]             & [-0.02, 0.01]           & [-0.03, 0.00] & [-0.02, 0.02] & [-0.02, 0.02]  \\
 Union 2     & 0.01               & -0.01               & 0.00             & 0.01   & -0.00   & 0.01      \\
             & [-0.01, 0.03]             & [-0.03, 0.01]             & [-0.01, 0.02]           & [-0.01, 0.02] & [-0.03, 0.02] & [-0.01, 0.03]  \\
 Income 1    & 0.18               & 0.13               & 0.11             & 0.19   & 0.19   & 0.29     \\
             & [0.01, 0.37]             & [-0.08, 0.32]             & [-0.10, 0.31]           & [0.02, 0.39] & [-0.01, 0.40] & [0.03, 0.57]  \\
 Income 2    & -0.14               & 0.07               & -0.08             & 0.05   & 0.12   & 0.12      \\
             & [-0.38, 0.07]             & [-0.14, 0.27]             & [-0.31, 0.13]           & [-0.17, 0.25] & [-0.11, 0.36] & [-0.15, 0.40]  \\
 Age 1       & -0.51               & -0.23               & -0.02             & -0.57   & -0.54   & -1.42      \\
             & [-1.06, 0.05]             & [-0.95, 0.48]             & [-0.73, 0.65]           & [-1.09, -0.05] & [-1.25, 0.17] & [-2.68, -0.31]  \\
 Age 2       & 0.24               & -0.47               & -0.08             & 0.29   & -0.61   & -0.65      \\
             & [-0.41, 0.90]             & [-1.26, 0.25]             & [-0.83, 0.63]           & [-0.39, 0.90] & [-1.51, 0.22] & [-1.59, 0.25]  \\
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              \\    
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
 \caption{Posteriori means and 95 \% Credible Intervals of Controls for Models with three-party coalitions in the German Longitudinal Election Study}
 \label{tab:coef.gles.cont3}
\end{sidewaystable}


\clearpage
